I am not sure current trends are of much help in predicting how much of education will be online in coming decades. All we can to is project the curve in the future, but current trends can always easily accelerate, slow down, or be reversed. Though I have no idea how to prove this beyond waiting to see what happens, I strongly suspect there is a natural limit.
One thing, though, that experience certainly seems to demonstrate is that the longing for "authenticity" of experience is very strong, and it seems to be a point of resistance against new media from books to television and, now, the Internet. Arguably, this longing for authenticity may be the major impulse... |
